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Short lessons from The HAB Report: one market question per page, worked through with our own data, and what to check for yourself.

1. Morning routine · 4 min readBefore the openThe five things to check before 9:30, in order, and what each one tells you.
2. Event days · 5 min readFed days: what the decision does to the rangeEveryone knows the date and the time, 2:00 PM. Here's how much wider SPX actually traded on the 38 Fed decision days since December 2021, and what the quiet day before and the busy day after look like.
3. Market structure · 5 min readPrior day's high, low and closePrior-day levels are some of the most watched prices in SPX. Here's how often the index actually came back to them over almost five years, and the one thing that matters more than the level itself.
4. Probability · 5 min readWhat "88%" actually meansOn Oct 23 the HAB Regime Monitor gave the prior-day low an 88% chance of being tested. It was. Here's what that number promised, what it didn't, and how to tell if the odds you're shown are honest.
5. Backtesting · 5 min readA high win rate can hide the tailA win rate near two out of three looks great in a backtest. Here's a real SPX 0DTE strategy we tested, what its win rate left out, and the numbers worth checking first.