Fed days: what the decision does to the range
Everyone knows the date and the time, 2:00 PM. Here's how much wider SPX actually traded on the 38 Fed decision days since December 2021, and what the quiet day before and the busy day after look like.
What a Fed day is
Eight times a year the Federal Reserve's rate committee meets for two days and announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET on the second day, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference at 2:30. Four of those meetings also come with the Fed's updated projections.
Unlike most market-moving news, the timing is known weeks ahead. That matters for anyone trading options that expire the same day: the whole market can see the event coming, and option prices are set with that in mind.
How much wider the day trades
We measured each day's range, high to low, as a share of the prior close. On the 38 Fed decision days since December 2021, the typical range was 1.35%. On the other 1,161 sessions it was 0.98%. At an index level of about 7,600, that's about 103 points against about 75.
The close moved further too. The typical close-to-close move was 0.91% on Fed days and 0.57% on other days.
The wide days come far more often
The difference is biggest in the tail. A range of 2% or more came on 31.6% of Fed days and 10.9% of other days, about 3 times as often. A range of 3% or more came on 15.8% of Fed days and 2.0% of other days.
Not every Fed day is wild. But the wild days cluster there.
It isn't automatic. 8 of the 38 Fed days, about 1 in 5, traded a narrower range than a typical ordinary day.
A quiet day before, a busy day after
The day before the decision traded like any other day: a typical range of 0.98%. The market tends to wait for 2:00 PM.
The day after stayed wide, with a typical range of 1.23%. The move doesn't always finish on the day of the announcement.
Meetings with the Fed's projections ran a little wider than the others: 1.43% against 1.25%. The October 28 meeting is not a projections meeting.
It held in every year of the data
Fed days were wider than other days in every year from 2022 to 2026, from the rate-hike year of 2022, when the typical Fed-day range was 3.07%, to 2026 so far, at 1.24% against 0.88%.
Higher premium comes with a wider day
Because the date is known, same-day option prices on a Fed day usually carry a bigger expected move than on an ordinary day. That's the richer premium sellers see on these mornings.
The range numbers above are the other side of it. The same day that pays more is the day most likely to run through a level that holds on a normal session. A strike that sits outside an ordinary day's range can sit inside a Fed day's.
Five things to keep in mind on a Fed day
- Know the clockDecision at 2:00 PM ET, press conference at 2:30. The biggest swings often come after 2:00, late in a 0DTE session.
- Expect a wider dayThe typical Fed-day range was about 1.4 times an ordinary day's, and a 2% day came about 3 times as often.
- The quiet morning isn't the whole dayThe day before traded like a normal day, and the morning of the decision can look calm too. The range usually comes later.
- Higher premium, higher riskBigger option prices on Fed days reflect a bigger expected move. They're paying for the risk, not removing it.
- History is a starting point38 decision days is a small sample, and 1 in 5 was quieter than a normal day. These are frequencies, not a forecast.
About the data: official SPX daily open, high, low and close, 1,199 sessions from December 2021 to September 2026, including 38 Fed decision days from the Federal Reserve's published meeting calendar. A day's range is its high minus its low, as a share of the prior close. 'Typical' is the median. Point figures use about 7,600 for today's index level. These are historical frequencies, not predictions. Past results don't predict future results.