The Fed waited. Big Tech paid. Then came the heist.
The Fed held and stocks barely blinked. Then the earnings came: Alphabet had its worst day ever, Intel fell 29% on its forecast, and Binance lost $6.3 billion in the biggest crypto theft on record.
What drove the week
Intel's quarter was fine. Its forecast wasn't. Intel reported Thursday after the close. Third-quarter revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year ago. Data center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, Intel's fastest growth there in 15 years.
Then came the forecast. Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings to 25 cents a share. Analysts were looking for about $17 billion and 43 cents, per Investing.com. Gross margin is guided to 38%, down from 44.1% last quarter.
The drag is PCs, still Intel's biggest business at $8.1 billion last quarter, down 5%. CFO David Zinsner said the slowdown will last "at least through the first half of next year." The stock fell 28.6% on Friday to $65.76.
The quarter was fine. The forecast wasn't.
Both sides of Intel. For: data center revenue grew 78%, Intel says demand for its Xeon server chips is "extraordinary" and supply is the limit, and it holds $54 billion in cash and short-term investments after raising $23 billion in stock this year. Against: margins are guided down six points, Intel sees PC units down about 12% this year and 10% next (per Investing.com), and spending is set to rise in 2027 with no positive free cash flow next year, per the same report.
It wasn't only Intel. Alphabet fell 13% on Thursday, its worst day on record, after reporting negative free cash flow (CNBC). Amazon fell Friday after missing on revenue and earnings while keeping its 2026 spending plan at $220 billion. Microsoft, which stayed cash-flow positive, rose on Thursday. This week the market judged Big Tech's spending by the cash it produces now.
The Fed waited, and stocks shrugged. The Fed held its rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, as expected. Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, voted for a hike; it was Cook's first dissent. The statement called growth "strong," up from "solid." The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98. The bond market did the moving: the 10-year yield ended near 5.05%, and futures put about 85% odds on a December hike. Thursday's data backed the Fed's read: third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% rate, and core PCE inflation for September was 3.1% from a year earlier.
Binance lost $6.3 billion in 20 minutes. Hackers drained about $6.3 billion from Binance on Thursday across ten blockchains, most of it in about 20 minutes, roughly four times the previous record, Bybit's $1.5 billion in 2025. Blockchain firm TRM Labs attributes it, with high confidence, to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; Binance has not named anyone. TRM says the attackers took over the system that signs withdrawals from Binance's online "hot" wallets; Binance's first finding points to an engineer's compromised laptop. About $2.5 billion was frozen within hours, mostly by stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle. Binance says users will be fully covered. Bitcoin fell about 5%.
What it exposed: the weak point is the online wallet and the machines that sign for it, and stablecoin issuers can now freeze billions in under an hour. No exchange or regulator has announced new rules yet; Binance has promised a full post-mortem.
Things to watch
Intel's other half. Data center revenue grew 78% while PCs shrank. Intel also joined the Musk-led Terafab chip-factory project in April. Watch whether server supply improves in the fourth quarter, whether any Terafab terms are disclosed, and what Intel says about 2027 spending.
Big Tech's cash test. This week the market rewarded the company still producing cash (Microsoft) and punished the ones that aren't (Alphabet, Amazon). Apple and AMD report next week.
How fast the Fed moves. Futures put about 85% odds on a December hike. Friday's jobs report and the next inflation numbers decide whether that holds.
Binance's post-mortem. Binance has promised a full technical explanation. Watch for what it says about how its hot wallets were signed, and whether other exchanges change how they secure theirs.
What's next
An election, a jobs report and the next round of AI earnings, all in five days.
After the close. After this week, the question is cash, not just growth.
Control of Congress is at stake; betting markets lean toward a Democratic House. AMD reports after the close.
With the 10-year near 5%, any change to auction sizes moves bonds. Also ISM services; Uber, Qualcomm and Arm earnings.
Forecasts call for about 55 thousand new jobs and 4.2% unemployment; a strong number firms up a December hike.
Mediators are carrying a revised peace proposal (CBS); a deal or a breakdown moves oil first.